全文: "Confirmation bias"
28件中 1-20の結果を表示しています
    Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology
    1996年 33 巻 2 号 110-118
    発行日: 1996/02/25
    公開日: 2008/04/18
    ジャーナル フリー
    A prototype version of a computer simulation system named JACOS (JAeri COgnitive Simulation system) has been developed at JAERI (Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute) to simulate the man-machine system behavior in which both the cognitive behavior of a human operator and the plant behavior affect each other. The objectives of this system development is to provide man-machine system analysts with detailed information on the cognitive process of an operator and the plant behavior affected by operator's actions in accidental situations of an NPP (nuclear power plant).
    The simulation system consists of an operator model and a plant model which are coupled dynamically. The operator model simulates an operator's cognitive behavior in accidental situations based on the decision ladder model of Rasmussen, and is implemented using the AI-techniques of the distributed cooperative inference method with the so-called blackboard architecture. Rule-based behavior is simulated using knowledge representation with If-Then type of rules. Knowledge-based behavior is simulated using knowledge representation with MFM (Multilevel Flow Modeling) and qualitative reasoning method. Cognitive characteristics of attentional narrowing, limitation of short-term memory, and knowledge recalling from long-term memory are also modeled. The plant model of a 3-loop PWR is also developed using a best estimate thermal-hydraulic analysis code RELAP5/MOD2.
    Some simulations of incidents were performed to verify the human model. It was found that AI-techniques used in the human model are suitable to simulate the operator's cognitive behavior in an NPP accident. The models of cognitive characteristics were investigated in the effects on simulated results of cognitive behaviors.
  • 織田 涼, 服部 雅史, 八木 保樹
    2015年 55 巻 1 号 28-39
    発行日: 2015年
    公開日: 2015/12/22
    ジャーナル フリー
  • 渡部 俊也
    2012年 8 巻 2 号 2_24-2_30
    発行日: 2012年
    公開日: 2012/06/20
    ジャーナル フリー
  • 工藤 恵理子
    2003年 43 巻 1 号 1-21
    発行日: 2003年
    公開日: 2004/02/17
    ジャーナル フリー
  • 入山 茂, 池間 愛梨, 桐生 正幸
    2017年 17 巻 1 号 95-101
    発行日: 2017年
    公開日: 2019/01/01
    ジャーナル オープンアクセス
    縊死偽装事例では、自殺と関連しやすい情報が含まれることにより、確証バイアスが生じ、死因 の鑑別を誤る可能性がある。特に、検視官と比較して、法医学の専門的な訓練を受けていない司法 警察員における確証バイアスの影響は大きい可能性がある。本研究では、過去の縊死偽装事例の分 析を行うことにより、心理学の領域でほとんど検討されていない、縊死偽装事例に関わった司法警 察員における確証バイアスの影響について、研究の手掛りとなる知見を提供することを目的とした。 テキストマイニング手法を援用し、縊死偽装事例 1 例の検視に関わった元検視官、元法医学者、元 司法警察員の出版された記録から、遺体の部位や状況、遺体に付随する物品に関する単語および熟 語(以下、遺体情報)を抽出し、χ 2 検定および残差分析を行った。分析の結果、他殺と鑑別した元検 視官、元法医学者と比較して、自殺と鑑別した元司法警察員は、着眼する遺体情報の種類が少なく、 索状物、頸部圧迫、体重といった縊死と関連する遺体情報に着眼していた。
  • Kanji TANAKA, Toshiki YAMAOKA
    2010年 53 巻 4 号 256-266
    発行日: 2010年
    公開日: 2011/05/14
    ジャーナル フリー
    It has been emphasized that understanding mental models is critical in problem solving, design, and reasoning. It also has been claimed that grasping mental models is difficult because mental models likely depend on our knowledge and experience. We focused attention on the transfer of mental models because we assumed that transfer probably has some common cognitive characteristics. In this study, the transfer group (A-B) and the non-transfer group (B) were prepared. In the transfer group, participants operated product A and product B in turn. By contrast, participants in the non-transfer group operated product B first. Operational time for product B in both groups was compared to examine how well mental models were transferred. We found that reducing the number of operational procedures could trigger the positive transfer of mental models if the other operational procedures were congruent.
  • Pablo Goldschmidt
    Tropical Medicine and Health
    2015年 43 巻 2 号 141-148
    発行日: 2015年
    公開日: 2015/06/30
    [早期公開] 公開日: 2015/03/25
    ジャーナル フリー HTML
    Organizations working for the elimination of Chlamydia-triggered blindness (trachoma) follow the WHO SAFE strategy (surgery for trichiasis, antibiotics, face washing and environmental changes) with the aim to achieve a minimum of 80% of children with clean faces in endemic communities, mass treatment covering the whole district with trachoma rates of 10% or more and surveillance plans. Trachoma recurrence that is common after implementing the SAFE strategy 3, 5 or even 7 times evidence that the cognitive processes requiring assimilation and integration of knowledge did not register with parents, caretakers and children. Moreover, repeated awareness campaigns to improve hygiene did not systematically produce irreversible changes of behavior in neglected populations. In view of this evidence, the rational behind mass drug administration as the mainstay of preventable blindness elimination demands a wider scope than simple mathematical models. The reluctance to see disappointing outcomes that leads to repeated interventions may suggest from a sociologic point of view that the strategies are products of those evaluating the activities of those who fund them and vice versa. A similar articulation emerges for reciprocal interactions between researchers and those judging the pertinence and quality of their work. So far, the lack of autocritic elimination strategy approaches may expose inbred circles that did not properly grasp the fact that antibiotics, trichiasis surgery and education limited to improvement of hygiene are inefficient if not associated with long-term basic educational actions in schools.
  • 唐沢 かおり, 戸田山 和久
    2013年 11 巻 2 号 117-123
    発行日: 2013年
    公開日: 2013/12/25
    ジャーナル フリー
    本研究は、福島第一原発事故後、間もない時期に出版された、一般読者向けの書籍5冊を対象として、その内容を分析し、科学コミュニケーションが科学的事実や科学者組織について、詳細な科学的知識を持たない人たちに伝達する際の問題点を議論したものである。まず焦点を当てたのが、現在、科学的に正しい見解が定まっていないと思われる、低線量放射線による被ばくの危険性に関する議論、および、危険閾についてのガイドラインを提出している組織である「ICRP」(International Commission on Radiological Protection)の信頼性を操作するような記述である。そこでは、科学的な論争における重要な論争点が提示されておらず、また、執筆者の立場により、ICRPの信頼性を高めたり貶めたりするような記述が恣意的になされていることが明らかとなった。このように、科学的論争を、科学的事実に関する議論の場ではなく、関与する科学者や組織の信頼性の問題としてフレームして、読者を説得する手法について、本論文は「信頼性戦争(Credibility war)」方略と名付け、その問題点を、科学的事実への理解が欠如した読者を安易に特定の立場に誘導してしまうこと、また、読者が確証バイアスによりその立場を堅持する結果につながりやすいことにあると指摘した。続いて、科学コミュニケーションのスタイルとして、「知識的に優位な立場の科学者」が、「知識が欠如した一般市民」に「教え授ける」という「欠如モデル」による説得レトリックの存在を指摘した。さらにその問題点として、このモデルがトピックに対しての自我関与がそれほど高くない一般大衆(つまりは、福島第一原発事故の直接被害を受けない層)により強く機能する可能性と、心理的リアクタンスの喚起により、コミュニケーション内容の理解が妨げられる可能性を指摘した。最後に、新しくみられる科学コミュニケーションの一例として、中川(2011)に着目し、一般市民が自らの行動を選択する責任を保持していることを前提にした科学コミュニケーションのあり方の可能性について議論した。そのうえで、放射線被ばくの健康への直接的結果だけではなく、それがもたらす社会的帰結がもたらす影響も総合的に評価したうえで、リスクを評価せねばならないという状況認識の重要性、またリスクを背負う人自身が、リスク評価を行う必要を前提とした科学コミュニケーションが今後求められることを論じた。
  • 眞嶋 良全
    2008年 6 巻 1 号 57-63
    発行日: 2008/08/31
    公開日: 2010/07/09
    ジャーナル フリー
  • 田村 昌彦, 服部 雅史, 三輪 和久
    2010年 17 巻 1 号 180-195
    発行日: 2010年
    公開日: 2010/10/22
    ジャーナル フリー
    In this paper, we propose a new model of human hypothesis testing process. The model predicts a sequence of testing when people continuously receive positive results that confirm the hypothesis. First we constructed a Bayesian model which addresses 5 situations to be tested based on information theory. In a simulation, we identified 5 qualitative characteristics of the model's behavior, some of which were corroborated in a subsequent experiment. The results of the experiment, however, also suggested that the participants did not correctly estimate the size of the hypothesis. By reconstructing the model, we simplified the model to explain participants' data. As a consequence, we found that a much simpler model can sufficiently explain the data. In conclusion, it was suggested that people are roughly Bayesian but they use heuristic strategies in hypothesis testing.
  • Kotaro Miwa, Kazuhiro Ueda
    2012年 5 巻 264-268
    発行日: 2012年
    公開日: 2013/06/12
    ジャーナル フリー
    In explaining the poor informational value of analysts' long-term earnings growth forecasts, studies have focused on the excessively aggressive forecasts induced by analysts' incentives and/or cognitive biases. This study reveals that the forecasts' poor informational value is driven by analysts' reluctance to issue conservative forecasts, which may also be induced by their incentives and/or biases. We predict that this reluctance allows each firm's conservative forecast to be heavily influenced by the firm's past performance and to be the noisy predictors to distinguish high-growth firms from low-growth ones. Consistent with our prediction, we find that each firm's most conservative forecasts are those most strongly influenced by past performance and have the least predictive power.
  • 武中 篤, 森實 修一, 引田 克弥, 本田 正史
    Japanese Journal of Endourology
    2017年 30 巻 1 号 72-76
    発行日: 2017年
    公開日: 2017/06/02
    ジャーナル フリー

     ロボット支援手術では高度に専門化したsolosurgeryとチーム医療という一見相反する方向性を,両立することが求められる.手術体系自体の大きな変化に伴い,リスクマネージメントにおいても従来とは異なる考え方が必要となっている.特に,テクニカルスキルのみならず,技術以外の自己管理や社会性の技能であるノンテクニカルスキル(NOTS)の重要性はより高まっている.外科医におけるNOTSは,NOTSS(Non-Technical Skills for Surgeon)とよばれ,状況認識(SA),意思決定(DM),コミュニケーション/チームワーク(C/T),リーダーシップ(L)の4つのカテゴリーからなる.ロボット支援手術におけるNOTSSの有用性はいまだ十分には検討されていないが,今後ロボット支援手術におけるNOTSSを確立し,より安全に手術を普及していくことが期待される.

  • Noriko Fukasawa
    会議録・要旨集 認証あり
    Most passengers take fixed routes commuting to a place of work or to school every day. In Japan, nevertheless, they are often confused when train operations are disrupted due to some accidents, even with these daily itineraries. Because in urban areas there are a large variety of different types of trains such as local, rapid, express, etc. which are operated on a certain single line and stop different stations, the arrival sequence of these trains can become disrupted even with a small delay. For this reason, passengers have to gather relevant information in order to decide which train they should to get on. Today, however, the railway operators provide limited information regarding operation conditions of each train. In this paper, therefore, the questionnaire survey carried out targeted daily commuters in urban areas, for whom train operations were most likely to be disrupted and for whom the need for more information at such times is the greatest, in order to seek an appropriate method of providing information that is desirable for both operators and passengers. The survey was conducted assuming that the schedule disruptions were slight enough to not need traffic operation rescheduling on a virtual rail route. The respondents answered about their own decision making for train choice and their reasons for choosing them when they obtain the detailed information about the situations of individual trains. It shows that passengers' decision make and behavior for train choice deeply depends on a combination of the items of provided information, which can suggests that how railway companies provide information to passengers for appropriate train choice.
  • 山 祐嗣
    2002年 9 巻 4 号 473-486
    発行日: 2002/12/01
    公開日: 2008/10/03
    ジャーナル フリー
    Each of some promising theories explains human performances on the indicative Wason selection task. For example, participants usually select the 5 case, in the selection task with the conditional “if an E, then a not-5”. This tendency of the selection was explained by the heuristic-analytic theory, which is one of the dual-processing theories, that people are likely to regard a matching case as relevant to the truth of the conditional in the heuristic process (Evans, 1998). However, because a positive concept constructs a smaller set than its negative one does (a rarity assumption), it is more effective to get information on the truth of the conditional in a positive set than in a negative set. Thus the optimal data selection theories can also explain the effect. Yama (2001) found that the so-called matching bias was an amalgam of two different cognitive components, namely, relevance judgment by matching and the optimal data selection process. It was examined if the dual-processing theories captured the optimal data selection process with some evidences and concluded that, although the heuristic-analytic theory should be revised, the implication of the evidences could be discussed within the framework of the dual-processing theories.
  • 服部 雅史
    2008年 15 巻 3 号 408-427
    発行日: 2008年
    公開日: 2010/02/15
    ジャーナル フリー
    Many fallacies and biases in human reasoning and judgment have been reported individually, but their relationships have rarely been argued, and we are still far from a unified psychological theory of thinking. In this paper, equiprobability is proposed as a key concept in human thinking from a Bayesian probabilistic perspective. The importance of the equiprobability assumption, together with the rarity assumption and a tendency to seek information, is suggested from the results of our probabilistic approaches to various tasks. These tasks include deduction, induction, and probability judgment, including the Wason selection task, covariation assessment, hypothesis testing, and base-rate neglect. People seem to have a general tendency to assume the equiprobability of any two target events they encounter. Using ideas obtained from studies of inference in animals and in people with schizophrenia, the adaptive implications of symmetrical inference, based on its relationships with the phylogenetic origins of human creativity, language, and social intelligence, are discussed.
  • Naomi MIYAKE, Hajime SHIROUZU
    2006年 49 巻 2 号 101-113
    発行日: 2006年
    公開日: 2006/08/30
    ジャーナル フリー
    This paper reports on a new movement in cognitive studies that focuses on understanding and promoting collaborative learning. First, learning goals are redefined and a theoretical explanation of how collaboration works to achieve such goals is provided. A laboratory study to test this theoretical framework is then described. The study was integrated within a two-year curriculum which teaches introductory cognitive science, and which uses technological tools to enhance teaching and learning processes and outcomes. Two classes are described: one using a technique called “the jigsaw method” to teach the construct of semantic memory, and the other using a more complex design called “the dynamic jigsaw” to facilitate sophomores learning how to integrate 24 research findings into a coherent view of cognitive science. The results to date are promising while at the same time stimulating new research questions about how college students may be helped in their acquisition of not just basic academic knowledge but also skills for self-directed learning and collaborative work.
  • 浅野 光紀
    2009年 2009 巻 60 号 137-152_L9
    発行日: 2009年
    公開日: 2010/11/09
    ジャーナル フリー
    Can we be unaware of the intention which is actually guiding our own purposeful behavior? This is the question I shall tackle in this paper, discussing the paradoxical nature of the phenomenon: self-deception. When the deceiver and the deceived are one and the same person,the deceptive intention of the former seems to be easily detected by the latter, rendering the whole project self-defeating. But what exactly is intentional about self-deception? Or is it an unintentional process after all?
    In this paper I shall focus on the various data-manipulating strategies in which the self-deceiver engages during the process of making himself believe what he knows to be false. These are intentional activities the motive of which is to reduce the anxiety caused by the unpleasant true belief. I will clarify the conditions under which the privileged access to our own mental states breaks down and secure the ontological possibility of self-deception without reducing it either to unintentional wishful thinking or to ‘Pascal’s wager’, namely an explicit conscious attempt at self-reformation.
  • 森本 信也, 坂本 憲明
    1992年 16 巻 4 号 185-189
    発行日: 1992/12/10
    公開日: 2017/06/30
    ジャーナル フリー
    The purpose of this study is to describe the model of science teaching and learning process so as to make clear the children's views of the natural world. The methodology adopted this study is the communication model that clarifies the interaction between the teacher's and learner's rule system. Consequentry, the authors could set up the stages of learning activities in order to prompt the children's knowledge formation and transformation.
  • 冨田 隆, 三輪 和久
    2002年 9 巻 4 号 501-515
    発行日: 2002/12/01
    公開日: 2008/10/03
    ジャーナル フリー
    In this study, we discuss the following two research themes on human discovery processes, using a traditional discovery task, the Wason's 2-4-6 task. One theme is the relation between nature of targets that subjects are required to find and an effective hypothesis testing strategy. The other theme is effects of collaboration in the process of discovery. The experimental results are summarized as follows. (1) There was interaction between targets' generality and an effective hypothesis testing strategy. That is, a positive test was effective in finding a specific target, while a negative test was effective in finding a general target. (2) The effect of two subjects collaboratively finding a target emerged only in a particular situation. That is, we confirmed, through our experiments, an evidnece of the effect of collaborative discovery when a pair of two subjects repeatedly conducted a positive test in their experiments for finding a general target.
  • 真坂 一彦
    2013年 95 巻 6 号 332-341
    発行日: 2013/12/01
    公開日: 2014/03/03
    ジャーナル フリー
    侵略的外来種ニセアカシアについての言説を整理し, 社会心理学的な視点から検討した。ニセアカシアは窒素固定菌と共生することで土壌に窒素をもたらし, 林内に外来の好窒素性植物を繁茂させ, 在来種を駆逐すると説明される。しかし, 報告されている調査事例は因果関係と相関関係の取り違えという試験設計上の問題をかかえ, ニセアカシアの影響を評価できない。一方で, 在来樹種の林内の種多様性と大きな差異がないという報告もある。ロジックに不備がある説明が受け入れられる背景には, 「仮説確証型の情報処理傾向」に基づく「選択的認知」が指摘できる。ニセアカシアの侵略性を紹介する資料の中には明瞭な虚偽記載も認められた。河川敷やクロマツ海岸林への侵入は, 人為的な土地改変や植生管理の停止という影響が大きい。人畜等への毒性については, 事例が限定的なうえに断片的な情報も多く, 「偶然の過大評価」や「証拠隠し」が疑われた。ニセアカシアは養蜂業を通して果樹野菜の花粉交配に貢献している。ニセアカシアの管理においては, 公正な情報に基づいた議論による社会的合意が必要とされる。