Typhoon Mireille (1991) caused devastation over Japan. Assessing the impacts of such an extreme typhoon under global warming is an important task to prevent and mitigate future natural disasters. This study investigated the influences of global warming on the strong winds of Typhoon Mireille by conducting pseudo-global warming (PGW) experiments with a regional model. Since significant damages to forest areas occurred in Kyushu and Tohoku, we compared the typhoon impacts in these two regions. It was demonstrated that on average the mean wind speeds induced by Typhoon Mireille become stronger in Kyushu and weaker in Tohoku under the PGW conditions than under the September 1991 conditions. The difference between the two regions in the future is due to the simulated typhoons under PGW being stronger at lower latitudes and weakening more rapidly at higher latitudes. Thus, the impacts of Typhoon Mireille under a warmed climate are considered to be more severe at a lower latitude and weaker at a higher latitude.
This study numerically investigates the influences of global warming on Typhoon Vera (1959) by conducting pseudo-global warming experiments. It was found that the intensity of Typhoon Vera will be stronger in warmed climate conditions than in the actual September 1959 condition not only at the time of the typhoon’s maturity but also at the time of the landfall. Sensitivity experiments indicate that this projected increase in the typhoon intensity is robust, by taking into consideration the effects of the increase in sea surface temperature and temperature lapse rate under global warming. The examination of rainfall characteristics over the Kiso River and the Yodo River basin demonstrated that the maximum accumulated rainfall and the maximum hourly rainfall at a certain location within the region are more intensified in the PGW conditions than in the 1959 condition at their worst levels. Robustness and uncertainty of the projected changes in the typhoon impacts are discussed.
The objective is to assess the economic effects of global warming upon agriculture and global economy under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, using EMEDA simulations. The EMEDA has 16 regions and 16 sectors, including five agricultural sectors. Our main outcomes are: all sectors in USA, EU25 and East Asia, and some sectors in Japan, Russia, South Korea, Oceania, and North America will experience economic growth, while the other regions only offset direct agricultural damages by global warming. USA, China and India can positively participate in the COP for the 2℃ target in future for obtaining their own potential large advantages.