Abstract
The Thomas-Fiering stochastic model for synthetic streamflow generation is used to determine monthly inflow scenarios for the watershed of the reservoir that supplies the city of Matsuyama, Ehime Prefecture.The scenarios are going to be used by a stochastic programming model which is being developed for the optimal operation of the reservoir. The Thomas-Fiering model allows for the non-stationarity of seasonal data. Twenty years of historical data are used for calibrating the model parameters and a new 20-year synthetic series is generated. The comparison between the statistics of historical and synthetic discharges shows that the model can preserve the characteristics of the historical series and effectivelyincorporate them into the generated data.
