A Statistical Prediction for Typhoon Movement Using Numerically Forecasted Data as Predictors

Abstract

Multiple regression equation for typhoon track forecast was developed by means of screening procedure. Data selected as predictors were numerically predicted 500mb geopotential height and parameter showing state of typhoons in 194 cases of 48 typhoons which landed or approached Japan during 7 years from 1965 to 1972 except 1966. Verification using 1973 to 1974 independent data indicates considerably positive result in terms of forecast accuracy.
As for the relationship between typhoon movement in 194 cases and 500mb geopotential height, it was revealed that negative correlation predominates between northward movement component and 500mb heights 1, 500 km north of typhoon center and between eastward movement component and heights 2, 500 to 3, 000km northwest of typhoon center.