Abstract
The present study evaluates the effect of climate change on Japanese rice production, price, agricultural income, and regional economies by using the recursive-dynamic regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. This model is associated with crop-growth models and global climate model. The simulation results demonstrate that future climate change will increase Japanese rice production for the country as a whole, but that the price of rice will decrease. As a result, agricultural income will decrease, despite the increase in production in the northern and eastern Japan, such as Hokkaido, Tohoku, and Kanto (including Niigata Prefecture). Climate change will not benefit rice farmers in these regions. However, the western region will benefit, despite the decrease in production, and consumer surplus in most regions will increase. As such, the impacts of climate change are complicated and differ by region. To consider policy countermeasures, the CGE model can provide useful information.
