FUTURE SCENARIOS OF RISK OF HUNGER USING SHARED SOCIOECONOMIC PATHWAYS

Abstract

 Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are being developed internationally to perform cross-sectoral assessments of climate change impact, adaptation and mitigation. SSPs consist of five scenarios including both qualitative and quantitative information in terms of challenges in mitigation and adaptation to climate change. In this study, we quantified scenarios for risk of hunger consistent with the qualitative future visions of the SSPs and clarified the factors that influence risk of hunger by using the AIM/ CGE model. We found that: 1) Future risk of hunger differs significantly according to social conditions; 2) the factors that cause large differences in risk of hunger among SSPs are population, inequality of food distribution, and mean percapita food calorie intake; and 3) inequality of food distribution is an important factor that influences risk of hunger in long-term assessments.