Probabilistic estimation of the maximum earthquake magnitude based on seismogenic fault-length data

Abstract

This is a proposal of introducing the probabilistic indication system of maximum earthquake magnitude into a seismic zoning map. In the previous method of seisic zoning, we use the upper limit of magnitude presumed from fault lengths or historical records of seismic damages. In the present study, we convert the indication system from determination to probability.
Practical applications of the new s y s tem are made to magnitudes transformed by M atsuda's formula from seismogenic fault lengths. Assigning Makjanic and Gumbel statistical models to the magnitudes such obtained, we express maximum magnitude in a form of, μ±σ, where μ is the statistically most plausible value of magnitude and σ is its deviation.