Abstract
Spring phenology is essential in modeling the carbon balance of high‑latitude ecosystems and is possibly sensitive to climate change. In the present study, we evaluated the onset of the growing season for three species (paper birch, bog blueberry, and bog Labrador tea) in interior Alaska from 2012 to 2019 using photos taken using time‑lapse cameras. We also evaluated the onset of the growing season at the ecosystem scale from 2010 to 2019 on the basis of the CO2 flux by the eddy covariance method at the site. On the basis of the growing degree‑day (GDD) model with the parameters estimated using the Bayesian approach, we found that the interannual variations in the spring onsets were explained by the model, and the thermal forcing requirement differed among the species. At the ecosystem scale, the spring onset was closely linked to the snow disappearance date. Under the possible future climate scenarios indicated by the representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario, the spring onsets were predicted to be one to three weeks earlier than the present dates for the three species. The ecosystem‑scale onsets were also predicted to be five days to a little over a month earlier at the end of this century. The future spring onset is highly sensitive to the snow disappearance date for high‑latitude vegetation; thus, further understanding of climate change before snowmelting is required.
