Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on Winter Wheat Production in China

Abstract

The potential impact of climate changes on winter wheat production in China was evaluated using an approach liking the CERES-Wheat model to both the local current weather data and the doubled CO₂ climate change scenario generated by the GISS GCM. Changes in overall output of winter wheat in China were also estimated, using a statistical model. Several agroclimatic indices were finally adopted to analyze possible changes in moisture condition, northern limits, varietal disposition, and cropping systems for winter wheat throughout the country.