Abstract
This paper tried to discover certain patterns in the “Arab Uprisings” and clarify which factors play a decisive role in the emergence, processes and results of the uprisings. For this purpose, I have focused on the relations between the ruling elite coalition (REC), the street protest movement (SPM), and external actors. In analysing these relations, I have introduced the notion of vulnerability/sensitivity in each group’s response to the other parties. This idea is based on the assumption that the composition, nature and internal power relations within each REC and SPM affects its relationship with the other party. If the vulnerability of the REC and the SPM to each other is high, the transformation of the REC can be achieved smoothly. On the contrary, low vulnerability in both the REC and the SPM leads either to the total reformation of the existing political system or to the perpetuation of the authoritarian regime. It may require international intervention to accomplish the goal of changing the regime but foreseeable post-revolutionary instability may prevent the international community from intervening. Thus the notion of vulnerability not only explains the nature of political transformation but also affects the post-Uprising political structure.
