Zoo-meteorological study of cold season disaster dzud occurrence in Mongolia

-Relationships between cow weight and environmental factors-

Abstract

The pastoral animal husbandry being the major industry, Mongolia has been suffering from the severe cold-season disaster called dzud, leading to mass losses of livestock. Thus, its prevention and mitigation are the essential need for the country. A statistical analysis was made of monthly cow weight observed at a moving zoo-meteorological station, together with the meteorological data at a nearby forest-steppe station at Bulgan aimag for 1992-2002. Results showed that the correlation with the cold season's decrease of cow weight is more significant with precedent summer conditions than with those during the concurrent cold season. That is, the correlation coefficient between the cow weight decrease and the precedent Julysoil moisture is negative, while that with the July temperature ispositive, indicating that the preceding summer drought is a crucialcause for dzud occurrence of cows. These statistical relationships will be used for a future Early Warning System of dzud.