Abstract
In Mongolia where agriculture and pastoralism is the basic industry, climatic disasters result in serious damage to the national economy –such as the last historically disastrous drought and dzud (1999-2002). In addition, the climate change and desertification will cause significant influence on people living there. In this study, we simplify a tree regression diagnosis model we developed before, in order to use it for the future by inputting outputs of an Earth system model (designed for climate change projection), and assess dzud risk in Mongolia for the rest of this century. The result map presents that in comparison to other regions dzud will be more frequent in the central-south to the north-east part of the country, and particularly tree provinces in that region have risk of the most disastrous dzuds.
