Abstract
This study develops a model that predicts environmental concentrations and ecosystem expo
sure to tributyltin (TBT), which is an organotin compound used as an antifouling paint on ship
hulls. In addition, using existing data, an average calculation for Tokyo Bay over four seasons
was carried out using a three-dimensional flow model and ecosystem model. The calculation re
sults for each season is stored in a database, and then combined with the chemical substance
fate prediction model for marine areas. This model can be adapted for operation in Windows
so that it is easy to use by other operators. Using the simple input of parameters, this prototype
modeling system enabled detailed prediction of environmental concentrations and ecosystem ex
posure in a marine area. In the future, it will be possible to conduct a risk assessment of human
exposure to TBT by improving the accuracy of parameters used in this modeling system.
