Transition of the Place of Death and Total Number of Death in Japan

Abstract

Along with a drastic demographic change with rapid aging and decreasing total fertility rate, the place of death for Japanese has been changed dramatically in 30 years. This phenomenon gives big problems for the medical resource allocation in Japan. So, in this literature I described that estimated transition of the place of death and total number of death in Japan 2010-2055. The transition of place of death in Japan is based on a demographic survey by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. Also, future number of death is from a demographic estimation by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. When current proportion of death at hospitals (79.7%) is assumed to be maintained, maximum number of death at hospitals is expected to be 1.32 million in 2040, increasing by 460 thousand compared with that in 2006. When current proportion is assumed to be decreased to 1990's proportion (71.6%) in 2040, the number of death at hospitals in 2027 is expected to exceed 1.25 million, increasing by 300 thousand (1.4 times) compared with that in 2006, and this level is expected to continue until 2046. When current proportion is assumed to be decreased to 1980's proportion (52.1%) in 2040, the number of death at hospitals is expected not to exceed 1 million, and decrease after the peek of 980 thousand in 2022. It is estimated from this result that when the current proportion of place of death is maintained, the maximum number of death at hospitals is expected to reach 1.32 million in 2040, being 1.5 times compared with that in 2006. When the purpose is to maintain the current number of death at hospital, 4.5% annual increase in the number of death at home or 1.4% annual decrease in the number of death at hospitals should be aimed to improve the home care service.