Abstract
A simulation model of forest dynamics was made based on the ZELIG model, and was used to simulate a broad-leaved secondary forest in Mt. Ginkakuzi National Forest, where a permanent plot was settled and surveyed. Though some uncertain data made it difficult to evaluate the results quantitatively, it was predicted qualitatively that Quercus glauca would dominate in the stand. Four factors were assumed to be required for dominance in this simulation : abundant recruitment, high shade tolerance, long life span and large individual size. There were only two tree species, Q. glauca and Cleyera japonica, which satisfied the necessary conditions in the species simulated. However, C. japonica lacks medium and large trees in the forest and was predicted to take a long time to increase its presence. Therefore, Q. glauca was predicted to be the most dominant species. It was supposed that Q. glauca should be noticed when the forest managers wanted to suppress the succession to evergreen stands.
