Quantitative prediction of long-term wood demand in Japan

Abstract

We developed a quantitative model for lumber, plywood, and paper (including pulp for paper production) consumption to predict the demand for wood in Japan to 2050. Parameters were estimated using a least squares fit. The primary variables were population, GDP, construction, and technology data during 1960–2010. The characteristics of the model were as follows: (1) lumber demand was described by construction, GDP, and population data; (2) plywood demand was described by construction and GDP data; (3) paper demand was described mainly by population and GDP data, and the rate of recycled paper use. The demand predicted by the model for a moderate-case scenario for 2011–2050 revealed the following: (1) due to the long-term decline in population, wood demand, especially for lumber, will decline by 2050; (2) the model results regarding the demand for lumber and paper differed significantly from the values in the National Forestry Agency Basic Plan; (3) the demand for paper as a proportion of the total wood demand will increase, and policy programs for hardwood will therefore gain importance in analyzing self-sufficiency with respect to wood in Japan.