Abstract
First, I estimated the model of farmers behavior about expansion of agricultural land leasing with the choice analysis in a case village located in sloping area. As the result, it was found that farmers were more concerned about the price of rice, the conditions of farmland, and land rent than the subsidy of direct payment. Furthermore, based on this result, I tried the farmland use prediction by a microsimulation. The result of the simulation showed if farmers behavior about expansion of agricultural land leasing was not taken into consideration 62.3% of farmland decreased from 1995 to 2015. However when farmers behavior was taken into consideration, this decrease was reduced to 44.5%.
