Analysis of the Demographic Shift Structure of Municipalities in the Chugoku Area by Applying Modified Method to Estimate the Number of People Moving to New Houses between any Two Districts in a Municipality

Abstract

In this paper, I developed a modified method to estimate the number of people moving to new houses between any two districts in a municipality by applying multiple regression analysis. Then, I applied the modified method to estimate the number of people moving to new houses between any two districts in 141 municipalities located in the Chugoku area. Using the aggregated estimated number of people moving to new houses in every demographic shift type in each municipality and the number of people moving to new houses between each municipality and outside municipalities, I analyzed the relation between the ratio of people moving to new houses in every demographic shift type divided by the municipal population and that of persons aged 65 or older divided by the municipal population.