An estimation of the effects of the openings of Shinkansen-stations on municipal population using the synthetic control method

Abstract

This study analyzes the individual treatment effects on the treated of the openings of Shinkansen-stations on municipal population in the postwar period using the Synthetic Control Method. The main findings are as follows. First, the effects of Shinkansen station opening are mixed positive and negative. Second, the treatment effects are positively correlated with the population at the opening of the Shinkansen. Third, the treatment effects have weakened over time, especially since the 1980s. Fourth, the treatment effects tend to weaken rapidly with increasing distance from the current ordinance-designated city, but the decline is not monotonous. This study complements studies on the estimation of the effects of transportation infrastructure investments analyzed by the Difference in Differences and instrumental variables methods.