Controlling the Narrative, Consolidating Power: COVID-19 and Indonesia’s Deepening Democratic Crisis

Abstract

Indonesia has witnessed two major, and very different, periods in its COVID-19 management. The first period, from early 2020 to mid-2021, was marked by the initial denial of the pandemic’s existence in Indonesia; the reluctance of the government to impose stringent public health measures; and the systematic ignoring of warnings by epidemiologists and economists that the government’s prioritization of the economy harmed both the public and the economy. After a massive spike of the Delta variant in mid-2021, which cost hundreds of thousands of people their lives, Indonesia’s leadership changed course. Obviously shocked by the carnage, the government tightened regulations, and it accelerated the acquisition of vaccines. As a result of natural protection caused by the mid-2021 wave and the new government measures (including a successful vaccination drive), COVID-19 fatality numbers remained relatively low for the last quarter of 2021 and much of 2022. However, despite these fluctuations in the government’s handling of COVID-19 and the corresponding outcomes, the public expressed consistent satisfaction with its leadership. This was true even at times when the statistics pointed to a devastating record in Indonesia—as they did for much of 2020 and 2021.

This article aims to explain, therefore, how President Joko Widodo (or “Jokowi”) managed to sustain his popularity in the first period of the COVID-19 crisis, when the government’s pandemic record was evidently poor. It argues that a large part of the answer to this puzzle lies in the pandemic narrative successfully pushed by the government in an increasingly pro-incumbent media landscape. It also lies, in equal measure, in the disincentives the government has created against both the elite and the public expressing dissent with government policies. Importantly, the trends that allowed Jokowi to control the pandemic narrative and the polity as a whole further consolidated during the outbreak. In order to develop these arguments, the article looks, first, at the media landscape prior to the pandemic. Second, it describes Jokowi’s pandemic narrative and, third, how it was successfully protected. Fourth, the discussion demonstrates why few political elites too challenged the president’s pandemic narrative, Finally, the article provides a brief overview of policy measures that Jokowi advanced during the pandemic to further consolidate his power. Overall, then, the pandemic has been both a reflection of Indonesia’s deepening democratic crisis and an opportunity to further centralize power in the ruling elites.