Abstract
Air traffic control system is expected to evolve in order to respond to strong demand of air traffic growth by employing new technologies. Quantitative evaluation of safety is one of the most important issues for smooth transfer of new technologies or introduction of new rules for automation in air traffic systems. Probability evaluation of midair collision is a typical problem of the safety analysis. This paper discusses a classical problem of midair collision on an airway. Normal distribution is assumed for simplicity to evaluate the collision probability, and standard deviation of the distribution is taken as an uncertainty parameter to assess the effect of uncertainty. The approach can explain the so called “navigation paradox,” and it naturally introduces lateral-offset, or side-stepping, which is a long proposed scheme as a solution of the paradox in the airway guidance.
