Prediction of the Growth of Salmonella Enteritidis in Raw Ground Beef at Various Combinations of the Initial Concentration of the Pathogen and Temperature

Abstract

　Recently we clarified the growth kinetics of Salmonella Enteritidis in raw ground beef at various temperatures with our growth model. Based on those results, this study aimed to build a new methodology to predict the growth of Salmonella in ground beef at given initial concentrations of the pathogen and temperatures. Namely, the maximum cell population of Salmonella at various combinations of its initial concentration and temperature was developed with a polynomial equation. The rate constants of Salmonella growth at various temperatures were estimated with the square root model studied in our recent study. A new system consisting of our growth model, the polynomial equation, and the square root model successfully predicted the growth of Salmonella inoculated at given concentrations in beef at constant and dynamic temperatures. The growth of natural microflora in beef at those temperature patterns were also successfully predicted with the growth model.