A Scenario Simulation and the Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Changes in Nigeria

Abstract

Nigeria’s land use pattern is undergoing various modifications stemming from the changing demographic and economic characteristics, resulting in various environmental problems. As the land use system continues to experience rapid modifications, we need to investigate how the historical and future land use patterns may impact Nigeria’s sustainable use of its land resources. In this paper, we explored the characteristics of land use change and simulated future land use demand by combining system dynamics and the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) models. We simulated future land use demand from 2020 to 2040 under three developmental (business-as-usual (BAU), market-oriented and conservation) scenarios. The results of the scenarios show that under the BAU scenario, cultivated areas increased rapidly from 42.5% in 2020 (baseline) to 57.8% in 2040. However, in the market-oriented and conservation scenarios, cultivated land is anticipated to be 52.3% and 44.3% respectively in 2040, highlighting how varying socio-economic and land use policies affect land use change. Based on the predicted scenarios in 2040, we gained insight into how socio-economic changes affect land use patterns, which would aid in the development, optimisation, and prioritising of areas where the utmost focus is needed to reduce environmental degradation and ensure sustainable growth and development.