Potential for growing ‘Fuji’ apple in Hokkaido under climate change

Abstract

　With its cold climate, Hokkaido grows early- to middle-maturing cultivars of apple. ‘Fuji’, a late-maturing cultivar, is the most popular apple in Japan, but it is not grown in Hokkaido. Warming due to climate change could make Hokkaido suitable for growing ‘Fuji’. We estimated the lower temperature limit for ‘Fuji’ from annual and seasonal （April to October） mean temperatures collected as mesh data in apple orchards in Hirosaki city from 1982 to 1991. The coastal region of western Hokkaido is predicted to become suitable for ‘Fuji’ by about 2050 under the MIROC5 RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios, and the inland of Hokkaido is predicted to become suitable under RCP8.5. It will be necessary to select appropriate apple cultivars for each cropping region in Hokkaido on the basis of anticipated future Greenhouse Gas emission trends or climate conditions.