Introduction of a predictive model into evaluation system for environmental fate of chemicals

Abstract

There are a number of chemicals which are harmful to human health as well as ecological systems. And some of them have been emitted to the environment. Although various systems and tools for evaluating environmental risk of chemicals have been developed, most of them require the information of the experimental values of chemical and physical properties as the parameters for the evaluations. Thus, it is difficult to evaluate the environmental risks of various chemicals of which only a few parameters have been obtained. The purpose of this study is to develop the system which enables us to evaluate environmental risk for a wide variety of chemicals. In this study, we try to introduce calculated values from a predictive model instead of experimental values into an evaluation system for environmental fate of chemicals. In addition, we tried to adopt the prediction errors of the calculated values to the evaluation systems, since the introduction of the prediction errors was expected to avoid wrong evaluations due to the prediction errors of the parameters. We used KOCWIN included EPI Suite developed by U. S. Environmental Protection Agency as a predictive model and MuSEM developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies as an evaluation system for environmental fate of chemicals.