2024A-OS3-9 Evaluation of Ensemble Wave Forecasts for R/V Mirai Arctic Ocean Expedition

Abstract

We have delivered ocean wave forecasts for annual R/V Mirai Arctic Ocean expeditions since 2019. The forecast has been used to support the onboard observation scheduling and to ensure safe working conditions for crew members. The usability of the wave forecast depends on its accuracy. Because waves in the polar seas are strongly modulated by the presence of sea ice, large uncertainty in ice forcing degrades polar ocean wave predictability. The interpretation and therefore the usability of R/V Mirai wave forecasts have not been straightforward. To improve the usability of wave forecasts for Arctic Ocean navigation, ensemble wave forecasts for R/V Mirai Arctic Ocean expeditions have been developed. The modelled wave heights were benchmarked against the satellite altimeter-derived wave heights. Interpretations from the results will guide future directions to improve ocean wave forecasts for polar navigation purposes.