Host: The City Planning Institute of Japan
This paper shows a new method of population projection by two observation-years population data with many small districts. We apply the cohort component method to our model. And, the applied result of the method to the data of local city (Yamagata-shi) is discussed. Three problems for population forecast in small district are discussed. As a result of analysis of data, the model of this paper divides districts into four kinds of quasi sub-districts. Also, our model has two kinds of parameters, one is regional common parameter and the other is individual parameter in each district. Finally, we project and analyze population of 2005 using 1995 and 2000 data.
