Host: The City Planning Institute of Japan
The purpose of this study is to evaluate the evacuation vulnerability quantitatively considering the risk of fire in large earthquake. First, we define three indices which assess the vulnerability: unattainability to evacuation site, expected evacuation distance, and refugee density. Second, we construct a network model on which we assume refugees evacuate toward evacuation sites avoiding fire, based on the calculation of the probability of fire on each node. Third, we consider the pattern where fire could occur by using Monte Carlo Simulation, and evaluate the evacuation vulnerability in Tokyo ward area. We found out that the risk of fire makes evacuation distance longer, especially in areas with higher probability of fire or inadequate assignment, and that change in destination or route to evacuation site results in decrease of unattainability or expected evacuation distance.
