Forecasting the international tourism demand from East Asia to Japan

Abstract

This paper suggests a method in forecasting international tourism demand. The forecasting model has two stages of estimation. First stage is the "International Trip Generation". We explained this by using a logistic curve. Second, we proceed to find out the travel destination by using the aggregate logit model. Results for the forecast of tourists coming to Japan led to two main conclusions. 1) The number of tourists from every Asian country shows a growing tendency until 2030. 2) Moreover, the rate of tourist visiting Japan will decrease gradually compared to other regions such as North America where the rate is steadily increasing.