Forecasting Public Services Demand in an Ageing Metropolitan Area with an Extended Cohort-Type Household Model Combined with Discrete Choice Location/Relocation Models

Abstract

The demand for public services, including transportation, depends not only on the number of households but also the type and composition of each household. Therefore, it is indispensable to forecast the future spatial distribution of households by such type from the viewpoint of sustainable public management, especially with an ageing metropolitan population. However, neither traditional meso-scale land-use models nor other equilibrium type models can practically deal with the types of locators in detail. On the other hand, micro simulation models are too complicated to build or apply in practice. The aim of the paper is to build a model with a simple framework of an extended cohort-type demographic model, and location/relocation models based on the discrete choice model. The model is applied to a transportation study in Sapporo Metropolitan Area and the results of future simulations suggest various implications which depends only on a transportation model, can never provide.