Abstract
This paper proposes a model that clarifies the influence of family safety information levels and shelter conditions on the behavior of earthquake-stranded commuters. The model is based on a Multi-Agent Simulation (MAS) framework so as to capture interactions among commuters and their influence on personal decisions. Simulation experiments were carried out in order to demonstrate the model. These experiments were based on a hypothetical earthquake in the city of Sapporo, Japan, where earthquakes are common weather phenomena. Model outputs highlight the importance of family information and perceived shelter environment conditions on commuters' decision making regarding staying at safe shelters or facing uncertain return-home journeys. Simulation outputs also identify the importance of sojourn shelters in reducing the likely hazards posed to stranded travelers. Furthermore, the results of an original path choice algorithm, proposed in this study, indicate that en route road choice changes are performed by travelers because of road conditions.
