Cost-Benefit Analysis of Developing a Light Rail Transit and Feeder Bus System in Utsunomiya City Considering the Change in Population Distribution

Abstract

Utsunomiya City in Japan is planning a new light rail transit (LRT) system between the downtown area and Haga Town which is located just outside Utsunomiya. It will be open to the public in 2019. Development of the LRT may have a large impact on the population distribution in the city in the future. In this paper, a model that can evaluate the impact of developing an LRT and the feeder bus system (FBS) on population distribution in the city is developed. With the model, estimations of population distribution from 2015 to 2040 in the cases with and without LRT and FBS and the cost benefit analysis are conducted. As a result, it is indicated that developing an LRT and FBS will increase the population in the areas along the LRT and FBS lines, and developing feeder buses in addition to LRT increases the cost-benefit ratio compared to developing only LRT.