Estimation of Human Damage from the Nankai Trough Earthquake Tsunami Based on Various Scenarios Using Geo Big Data: Case Study in Kochi City

Abstract

In order to enhance the crisis management response using the example of the Nankai Trough Earthquake in Kochi, we developed micro data that can be used to estimate high-definition damage based on big data accumulated with improved observation technology. People flow data generated by interpolating probe data from mobile phones equipped with GPS with big data such as residential maps and telephone directories can demonstrate the detailed flow of people over 15-minute time blocs during 24-hour periods. We developed a method for the integrated estimation of fatalities caused by building collapses, fires, and tsunami using the people flow data. By analyzing various damage estimation results, we clarified the distribution of the likelihood of damage by region and clarified the maximum damage and maximum likelihood of damage that could occur in each. The estimations indicated that fatalities would likely be significant in coastal areas.