INVESTIGATION ON MARINE TRAFFIC IN THE BISAN SETO
—NO. 1 PROBABILITY OF VESSEL COLLISION AND GROUNDING—
1983 Volume 1983 Issue 43 Pages 1-19
Details
1983 Volume 1983 Issue 43 Pages 1-19
Marine Traffic in the Bisan Seto is investigated here laying emphasis on traffic accidents in 12 years from 1970 to 1981.
The number of geometrical collisions and groundings, Ng, can be estimated with traffic-related quantities e.g., the density, the speed, etc.
Calculation of the probability of vessel collisions and groundings, P, which is the rate of the number of traffic accidents, N, to Ng gives following results;
1. log P=-4.7±0.4 for collision of vessels in antidirectional encounter (head on).
2. log P=-4.3±0.2 for collision of vessels in codirectional encounter (overtaking).
3. log P=-3.9±0.4 for collision of vessels in crossing encounter.
4. log P=-4.5±0.4 for collision of a navigating vessel and a vessel engaged in fishing (including anchoring, drifting, etc.,).
5. log P=-3.9±0.6 for grounding.
These values enable the estimation of danger of collision and grounding for each passage through the Bisan Seto and other waters where traffic surveys have been made.
