Population reproductive potential: Evaluation of long-term stock productivity

Abstract

In order to avoid recruitment overfishing, fish stocks must have sufficient reproductive ability. The spawning stock biomass (SSB), which ignores the value of immature fish, is widely used as an index of stock sustainability. From the perspective of sustainability, immediate reproduction, as well as future spawning, must be considered. We developed an index of long-term stock productivity, called the population reproductive potential (PRP). PRP is defined as the expected total reproductive value of the standing stock. We used PRP to assess the western Atlantic bluefin tuna (WBT) stock. The trends in SSB, numbers (N), biomass and PRP of WBT are inconsistent when compared to each other, due to fluctuation in age composition. We evaluated the long-term productivity of WBT by computer simulation and compared the result with trends in the abundance indices. The result of the computer simulation was highly consistent with the trend in the PRP. Short-term trends in SSB and N often do not reflect long-term stock trends, because they are highly sensitive to age-composition dynamics. The PRP is useful for evaluating stock trends, especially when the age composition is unstable.