Proceedings of the Fuzzy System Symposium
29th Fuzzy System Symposium
Session ID : TB2-4
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Fuzzy Cluster Analysis on International Stock Prices: Short Run and Long Run Comovement
Kaiji Motegi*Kimiaki ShinkaiHajime Yamashita
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Abstract
This paper investigates short run and long run comovement of international stock prices from the viewpoint of both region and industry. We apply fuzzy cluster analysis to recent daily stock price data of Asian and U.S. firms, using coherence as a similarity measure. The empirical results indicate that the country effect surpasses the industry effect in both short run and long run, i.e., shares from the same country tend to move together but shares within the same industry do not. This finding provides portfolio managers with a practical implication that choosing a country and then many kinds of industry therein is a riskier investment strategy than choosing an industry and then many countries. The dominant country effect also highlights a slow process of globalization. Another interesting finding is that both short run and long run correlations among shares have surged since the subprime mortgage crisis. This implies that the portfolio diversification effect has become smaller in recent stock markets.
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© 2013 Japan Society for Fuzzy Theory and Intelligent Informatics
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