PREDICTION OF GASTRIC ULCER HEALING BASED ON THE MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF THE ENDOSCOPIC ULTRASONOGRAPHIC FINDINGS

Abstract

To predict the healing period of gastric ulcer, the author analyzed the endoscopic ultrasonographic findings of 55 cases of open ulcer in which 50 cases were medically treated and 5 cases operated surgically by using the multiple regression analysis. Results were as follows; 1. The equation of multiple regression analysis to predict the healing period from EUS examination to endoscopic red scar stage was clarified as following. Y (weeks) = 0.9953×(scale of endoscopic stage) + 0.9593×(scale of endoscopic shape) + 1.0429×(scale of ulcer depth) + 0.5326×(scale of section area of ulcer base) -2.5847 2. Predictive value and observed value of the healing period of gastric ulcer showed good correlation (r=0.861). Four cases of relatively slower healed ulcer than the predic-tion had the background factors such as traumatic injury or severe liver disfunction. 3. Mean of the prediction value of the medically treated 50 cases was 6.3 weeks and that of surgically operated 5 cases was 10.4 weeks. Namely, the predictive value was thought to be one of good references to determine the indication of surgical operation for gastric ulcer. In conclusion, the predication of ulcer healing based on the multivariate analysis of the EUS findings was expected to give the very useful information to select the best theraputic method for gastric ulcer.