2017 Volume 63 Issue 2 Pages 81-88
The future situation of double cropping (DC) of corn (Zea mays L.) in Japan’s Kanto region was predicted based on the data simulated with the MRI-CGCM3 climate model and representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 scenario. Annual effective cumulative temperatures (ECT, 10°C basis) in 2040 and 2090 were calculated for every third grid square (approximately 1 km×1 km) of the Kanto region, as a mean value between 2031 and 2050, and between 2081 and 2100, respectively. The areas suitable for corn DC were distinguished as two types of areas : one was the area in which ECT was higher than 2,300°C and corn DC was possible. The other was the area in which ECT was higher than 2,530°Cand high quality forage of which the dry matter ratio would be higher than 30% could be produced both in the first and the second cropping. It was predicted that, until 2040, the areas in which ECT values exceeded 2,300°C would expand to the central parts of the Kanto region (south areas of Tochigi Prefecture and Ibaraki Prefecture), and that, until 2090, the areas in which ECT values exceeded 2,530°C would expand to the central parts of the region.
