DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEL TO ESTIMATE SOLAR POWER GENERATION OUTPUT BASED ON WEATHER FORECAST INFORMATION

Abstract

In order to provide stable power system operation, our work is focusing on the development of a model to estimate Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) to create a day-ahead prediction for photovoltaic power output, as well as the prediction of the forecast error itself. The knowledge about the relation between single and combined parameters of weather forecast data to solar irradiance plays a key role in our work and is being analyzed. Our results found contributes to creating a reliable forecast model and improve energy system stability. As a future work, a pattern-analysis of outliers has to be conducted for further improvements.