Forecast of the Supply of Petroleum Products after a Great Earthquake in the Metropolitan Area

―A Prediction Based upon the Case of the Great East Japan Earthquake―

Abstract

　

In the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011, the shortage of petroleum products lasted about 1 month not only in the affected area but also in the Kanto area. In the affected Tohoku area, the fuel shortage had been finally solved after both of the shipping channel to Sendai-Shiogama Port and the coastal oil terminal recovered. This research clarified how the recovery of the channel and the oil terminal contributed to the resolution of the fuel shortage. As a result, it turned out that there are two important factors for predicting the supply of petroleum products and the impact by its shortage at the time of a disaster. Those factors are “shipping capacity (kl / day) of oil terminals” and “the situation of electric power supply.” TEPCO generates 66% of the electricity from LNG thermal power, which indicates the inherent weakness in LNG thermal power generation after a disaster.