Abstract
We developed a logistic regression model using spatial patterns to assess the risk of economic damage to crops caused by Japanese macaques (Macaca fuscata yakui) in two villages on Yakushima Island, Japan. Three explanatory variables were selected to assess whether an orchard was at risk of economic damage by macaques: the distances between the orchard and two geographical features (a forest and a busy road), and vulnerability to crop raiding, which reflects the difference in the likelihood of crop raiding by village. This model could be used as a basis for developing risk maps for economic crop damage by macaques. We discuss the effectiveness and limits of this model and suggest a possible risk map.
