Application of Bayesian Theorem to the Establishment of Probability of Failure Data for Equipments at Risk Based Inspection Planning

Application in guidelines -2-

Abstract

In the previous report, the fundamental principle of Bayesian update was shown. It was shown that Bayesian method is extremely effective to establish database for probability of failure (PoF) of equipments based on inspection data. From a practical point of view, it is important to understand a concrete procedure to apply the Bayesian method for the evaluation of PoF. Fortunately, a guideline published by American Petroleum Institute (API) shows the procedure using Bayesian method for the likelihood analysis. In API581, Technical Module Subfactor (TMSF) plays an important role for the evaluation of likelihood. In this report, the way to apply Bayesian method to the determination of TMSF will be shown.