Virtually experiencing future climate changes in Central America with MRI-AGCM: climate analogues study

Abstract

Twenty-four simulations were carried using the Meteorological Research Institute-Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-AGCM) to predict the late 21st century climate under scenario A1B of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Future climate analogues were identified for Central American capital cities using a recently developed nonparametric method. We used MRI-AGCM3.2H with a horizontal resolution of approximately 60 km, three convection schemes, four sea surface temperature distributions, and two initial conditions. Thus, the total ensemble size was 24, with a simulation period of 25 years. Most of the future analogues are at lower latitudes than their target cities, or near biological diversity and endemism hotspots like coral reefs and mangrove forests. Projected seasonal variations in surface air temperature and rainfall in Panama City were similar to the present-day climate of Soc Trang, located at the mouth of the Mekong River in Vietnam. The nonparametric method introduced in this study for identifying climate analogues can be utilized for impact assessments under a changing climate.