The first full projections of rainfall and streamflow in the “Fertile Crescent” of Middle East are presented in this paper. Up until now, this has not been possible due to the lack of observed data and the lack of atmospheric models with sufficient resolution. An innovative super-high-resolution (20-km) global climate model is employed, which accurately reproduces the precipitation and the streamflow of the present-day Fertile Crescent. It is projected that, by the end of this century, the Fertile Crescent will lose its current shape and may disappear altogether. The annual discharge of the Euphrates River will decrease significantly (29-73%), as will the streamflow in the Jordan River. Thus countermeasures for water shortages will become much more difficult.
2008 Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources