A new approach to flood risk assessment in Asia-Pacific region based on MRI-AGCM outputs

Abstract

Climate change is anticipated to escalate flood impacts, and thus it is important to assess flood risk closely in terms of extent and location. This study aimed to assess present and future flood risks, particularly flood risk change, over the Asia-Pacific region with consideration of climate change impacts by using a topography-based analysis method. By analyzing the output of the super-high-resolution global atmospheric general circulation model, it was found that future flood risk will increase in response to extreme rainfall under climate change. Results of this study also indicated that flood risk will further increase in the far future (2075–2099) than in the near future (2015–2039). Analyses of inundation area and flood inundation depth (FID) also showed upward trends; most of flood plains in the Asia-Pacific region may experience a 0–50cm increase in FID.