Spatial Distribution of Two Korean Toad Species (Bufo gargarizans and B. stejnegeri) Following Climate Change

Abstract

Climate change is a major factor contributing to the loss of habitat and decline of amphibian populations, posing a threat to biodiversity conservation. Bufonidae species are particularly sensitive to changes in their environment and vulnerable to climate change due to their strong homing instinct and frequent group behavior (mating and migration of juveniles). We identified the major distribution areas and habitat characteristics of two toad species found in Korea, toad, Bufo gargarizans, and water toad, B. stejnegeri, based on observation points and species distribution modeling. Distributional changes due to climate change were predicted. The toads used low altitudinal ranges and agricultural land, whereas the water toads used forested areas. The average model test area under the curve (AUC) value for toads was 0.695±0.007, while the average test AUC value for water toads was 0.883±0.015. Toad distribution was most affected by temperature and altitude. By the 2100s, the number of occupied grid cells for toads and water toads is predicted to decrease by 99.57% and 100.00%, respectively, compared to the present number of occurred grid cells under the SSP 5-8.5 scenario. These critical data inform conservation measures for amphibians affected by global climate change.