Predicting Suitable Habitat and Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of the Oriental Shrub Frogs Genus Philautus in Sumatra

Abstract

Several recent studies have highlighted that climate change is a major driver of biodiversity loss. In particular, amphibians, including the genus Philautus (small rhacophorid frogs), are seriously vulnerable due to their permeable skin and biphasic life cycle. This study used ecological niche modeling to predict the current and future distributions of three common Philautus species from Sumatra (P. larutensis, P. polymorphus, and P. thamyridion) under climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 for 2050 and 2090. The model results aligned well with field records of the examined species, showing that P. larutensis occupies a large area from north to south along the Bukit Barisan Mountain Range, while P. polymorphus and P. thamyridion are mainly distributed in the mountainous areas of southern Sumatra. Projections under future climate scenarios indicate that the suitable habitats of the three species could decline by 44% to 96%, with shifts toward higher altitudes. Alarmingly, only 8.6% to 12.5% of the suitable habitats of these tree frogs overlap with current protected areas. These findings highlight the urgent need for conservation measures to mitigate the effects of climate change on Philautus species on Sumatra.