An Estimation Method of Photovoltaics Power Output using Satellite Images and Power Flow

Abstract

There is a growing need to use photovoltaic (PV) technology to mitigate global warming and the depletion of fossil fuels. However, the high network penetration of PVs potentially lessen the stability and the reliability of electrical power systems in various ways. Under its high network penetration, monitoring of the unmeasurable power outputs of PVs is needed for the proper operations of an electrical power system. To suffice this need, a novel method was proposed to estimate the PV power output of the system using the measured power flow and solar radiation intensity estimated from satellite image in our previous work. However, it occasionally causes large estimation errors of the PV power output based on the wrong estimation of parameters induced by a large data sampling interval. To address this issue, in this paper, we improved our proposed method by introducing an parameter estimation procedure to exclude outliers of estimated values and increase the number of data used for estimation. We confirmed its enhanced accuracy using data observed from The Kansai Electric Power Co., Inc.