Abstract
A method is proposed for developing future global energy scenarios. Among various types of energy models those of optimization type seem the most appropriate to envisage energy scenrios under physical, economic and political constraints, of which the most serious are certainly CO2 emission reduction targets such as those agreed at COP3 in 1997. One of disadvantages of these models, however, is the possible gap between the criterion adopted in the models and those, although implicitly, used in the real world. Because of this gap the resultant scenarios produced by the models very often differ far from reality. The method proposed in this paper is to derive informations on differences between reality and scenarios produced by the model from shadow prices obtained from application of optimization to the past with the constraints on the regional energy supplies, and then to modify the cost data of the model with these shadow prices so as to reflect reality of the resultant scenarios. Numerical analysis employing DNE21 model developed by the authors demonstrates usefulness of the proposed method.
