Abstract
This work reports an estimate of demand for telecommunication services and an estimate of the investment cost of constructing telecommunication infrastructure in Japan for the period of 1996-2025. Economic models are formulated to describe main activities of the Japanese telecommunication industry including mobile communication, the Internet, Public Switched Telephone Network PSTN and Broadband Integrated Services Digital Network B-ISDN. Under a number of assumptions on macro economic and social indices, we make a forecast of the number of subscribers to telecommunication services, the amount of investment to satisfy the demand, the operating costs, the operating incomes and loses, and the cash-flow of the operator. Comparing some scenarios, we estimate the amount of public finance to promote the construction of the information infrastructure.
